Morgan Stanley: U.S. dangerously close to recession
- Thread starter Facetious
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Rey C.
Racing is life... anything else is just waiting.
Y = c + i + g + (x − m)
I understand where you're coming from and agree with what you're saying about the unemployment and underemployment problem. But realize that within the common GDP measure, private consumption is one of the component variables. So if there is a condition which negatively affects that (whether it's caused by unemployment, underemployment or increased savings), it will be reflected in the current GDP measure.
Earlier this summer, most were assuming GDP would be around 3% by the 3rd and 4th quarters. But most are backing away from that now. The Eurozone debt crisis, combined with the debt and deficit issues here, seem to have caused people and businesses to pull back on economic activity.
And though I would prefer to stab myself in the eye with a hot needle, rather than explain how GDP is calculated to Michele Bachmann, S@rah Palin or any member of the TEA party, it's simply a mathematical fact that reducing "G" (government spending), especially in a time of recession, will necessarily bring down the GDP measurement. Unless "C" (private consumption), "I" (gross investment) or "X-M" (exports minus imports) increase by AT LEAST the amount that government spending is reduced, GDP will be lessened. I understand the claimed reasons for reducing spending. But one cannot get around the effect on the GDP measure.
In sum, unless there is a glaring error in how GDP is calculated, I would not be in favor of changing the accepted formula. As for the definition of "recession", it is what it is. Right now we have a time similar to the Great Depression. But if we were to change the definition to suit this time period (high unemployment), would we change it again if we had a different condition which soured economic activity, like high inflation? IMO, it's better to remain consistent. And that way it's easier to use the same measurement system to compare different periods of economic activity; apples to apples... that sort of thing.
I understand where you're coming from and agree with what you're saying about the unemployment and underemployment problem. But realize that within the common GDP measure, private consumption is one of the component variables. So if there is a condition which negatively affects that (whether it's caused by unemployment, underemployment or increased savings), it will be reflected in the current GDP measure.
Earlier this summer, most were assuming GDP would be around 3% by the 3rd and 4th quarters. But most are backing away from that now. The Eurozone debt crisis, combined with the debt and deficit issues here, seem to have caused people and businesses to pull back on economic activity.
And though I would prefer to stab myself in the eye with a hot needle, rather than explain how GDP is calculated to Michele Bachmann, S@rah Palin or any member of the TEA party, it's simply a mathematical fact that reducing "G" (government spending), especially in a time of recession, will necessarily bring down the GDP measurement. Unless "C" (private consumption), "I" (gross investment) or "X-M" (exports minus imports) increase by AT LEAST the amount that government spending is reduced, GDP will be lessened. I understand the claimed reasons for reducing spending. But one cannot get around the effect on the GDP measure.
In sum, unless there is a glaring error in how GDP is calculated, I would not be in favor of changing the accepted formula. As for the definition of "recession", it is what it is. Right now we have a time similar to the Great Depression. But if we were to change the definition to suit this time period (high unemployment), would we change it again if we had a different condition which soured economic activity, like high inflation? IMO, it's better to remain consistent. And that way it's easier to use the same measurement system to compare different periods of economic activity; apples to apples... that sort of thing.
busenbust
^^^^
http://online.wsj.com/video/roubini...A5AF-DF2F3E2F8735.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_mpvidcar_1
^^Roubini interview ...."Karl Marx had it right ..." / "2nd leg of Great Depression ... "/
^^Roubini interview ...."Karl Marx had it right ..." / "2nd leg of Great Depression ... "/
Re: Y = c + i + g + (x − m)
And you too are 100% correct, as we look at different periods of time. I do think however that we need to come up with something in addition to the GDP because we need to compare how income was to how it is now and going to be in the future. This is significant as the middle class continues to get eliminated, without a strong middle class the consumer based economy gets worse and worse.
I am reping ya man, your explanation was fantastic.
And you too are 100% correct, as we look at different periods of time. I do think however that we need to come up with something in addition to the GDP because we need to compare how income was to how it is now and going to be in the future. This is significant as the middle class continues to get eliminated, without a strong middle class the consumer based economy gets worse and worse.
I am reping ya man, your explanation was fantastic.
If you take someone suggesting to you basically, 'keep trying' as an indicator that you hit the mark the first time then I suppose there are more people on this board with interpretative deficiencies than I thought.
Your post proved that my assumptions were incorrect.:2 cents:
I agree. See and there wasn't even an accompanying argument.
As the former owner of two businesses myself I can't tell you how absurdly ridiculous some of these "academicians" (well, academics :o) and 'textbook business persons' sound pining on and on for us dumb lay people and practitioners of trade to understand and accept their theories and analytical conclusions.
I assume you like many people who get an education then go to trade and practice know there is a pretty clear distinction between what is learned and what presents itself in practice. It's quite often the case theories are one of the first things that go out the window when reality presents itself.
Let me see, I seem to recall attempting to articulate your exact-same-point to some apparent academic. For example, I explain in real terms how it is more productive for an electrician to claim unemployment while he/she spends their day looking for employment as an electrician than spending 8 hrs. day stacking boxes in some warehouse (underemployment). And that it is ultimately not just better for this individual's personal economy but the larger economy.
TOTALLY went clean-over-his-head as he replied with text book eggheadery about how the person is not being productive in economic terms blah blah blah bullshit that doesn't amount to a hill of beans to the average working person. He responds in terms that for practical purposes are relevant only to textbooks and a classroom.In most cases if the option is unemployment claim versus gross underemployment, it is far better for a person to claim unemployment while looking for and ultimately acquiring employment commensurate with their background. This person acquiring underemployment is a double blow to any economic recovery as it underemploys him/her and it prevents someone more suited for the 'underemployment' job from getting it. There are other macro ramifications from it too but those are the most apparent.
meesterperfect
Hiliary 2020
my baby's mama gets free rent, free food, free money, free healthcare and free other shit.
and I work jobs for a week or two at a time then quit or get fired so we doin alright.
plus that earned income credit check of 3 or 4 grand every spring gets us some new stuff too.
As long as things are going this good I'ma vote again for the second time in 2014.
you da man Obama!
and I work jobs for a week or two at a time then quit or get fired so we doin alright.
plus that earned income credit check of 3 or 4 grand every spring gets us some new stuff too.
As long as things are going this good I'ma vote again for the second time in 2014.
you da man Obama!
Rey C.
Racing is life... anything else is just waiting.
Course you comedians realize that if it was McCain/Palin in office now, the headline would likely read:
"Morgan Stanley: U.S. Dangerously Close to Depression"
A man who admitted (to his credit) that he didn't understand economic matters all that well, combined with a woman who once described herself as a "physical" conservative, and did well to get a make believe degree from a series of diploma mills. Yeppers, that there seems like a formula for success if there ever was one. :rofl2:
Sorry, guys. But other than the word "no!!!", the only thing I seem to be hearing from the GOP/radical right these days is "all we need to de-regulate and cut taxes". That seems to be their proposed solution for everything. Every problem under the sun can be solved by de-regulation and tax cuts. Riiight! So if something produces disastrous results the first time, let's just try it two or three more times... or until it does work??? Isn't that the purest definition of
insanity? :dunno:
Well, I raise my glass to you blokes and the next President of the United States: Rick Perry. He will do for (or to) the U.S. what he has done for (or to) Texas. :thumbsup:
"Morgan Stanley: U.S. Dangerously Close to Depression"
A man who admitted (to his credit) that he didn't understand economic matters all that well, combined with a woman who once described herself as a "physical" conservative, and did well to get a make believe degree from a series of diploma mills. Yeppers, that there seems like a formula for success if there ever was one. :rofl2:
Sorry, guys. But other than the word "no!!!", the only thing I seem to be hearing from the GOP/radical right these days is "all we need to de-regulate and cut taxes". That seems to be their proposed solution for everything. Every problem under the sun can be solved by de-regulation and tax cuts. Riiight! So if something produces disastrous results the first time, let's just try it two or three more times... or until it does work??? Isn't that the purest definition of
insanity? :dunno:
Well, I raise my glass to you blokes and the next President of the United States: Rick Perry. He will do for (or to) the U.S. what he has done for (or to) Texas. :thumbsup:
Facetious
Moderated
MBA's as individuals: Always good for a variety of answers to relatively finite questions.
I love these guys :rofl2: You'll see 'em fielding questions from ''MBArtoromo'' on CNBC and they''ll say one thing... a day later, you'll see the same dood on CNN Business fielding the same question as he did just two days earlier (with MBArtoromo), and you ask yourself... is this clown a walking contradiction or does he have a twin brother(?) :1orglaugh
It's like... ''Yea, yea, that's the ticket ... that sounds good today,
I don't care, I gotta 6 course dinner engagement to get ready for in four hours, that's what we're gonna tell 'em, that's what I'm gonna run with, they'll never know the difference'', as he ponders the pre dinner Chateau Lafite Mouton Rothchild (whatever) vertical vintage wine tasting. :yummie:
Arrogant Condescending Creeps!
Never listen to an MBA! even if it's a family member!:1orglaugh
I love these guys :rofl2: You'll see 'em fielding questions from ''MBArtoromo'' on CNBC and they''ll say one thing... a day later, you'll see the same dood on CNN Business fielding the same question as he did just two days earlier (with MBArtoromo), and you ask yourself... is this clown a walking contradiction or does he have a twin brother(?) :1orglaugh
It's like... ''Yea, yea, that's the ticket ... that sounds good today,
I don't care, I gotta 6 course dinner engagement to get ready for in four hours, that's what we're gonna tell 'em, that's what I'm gonna run with, they'll never know the difference'', as he ponders the pre dinner Chateau Lafite Mouton Rothchild (whatever) vertical vintage wine tasting. :yummie:
Arrogant Condescending Creeps!
Never listen to an MBA! even if it's a family member!:1orglaugh
Rey C.
Racing is life... anything else is just waiting.
Really? Is that nice? Is that nice? :nono:
Lawyers I could understand. But if not for MBA's, think of all the Chinese kids who wouldn't have jobs, making stuff for 20 cents an hour... that Americans used to make for $20 an hour. See, we're the gas that powers the Free Market engine, my man! And most of us are Republicans to boot! Why no love? Why does squirrel hate me?
busenbust
^^^^
oh absolutely , they are never held to account: one week : buy the dixie over two months....next week: sell the dixie over same said period :laugh: yep, bunch of clowns sums them up. but what does one expect: it's never their own money ! fuckheads !
^^agreed ! I want their lips sealed Fac! :thumbsup: :laugh:
Stanley is not what it once was.
*pushes play*...."At least u/e isn't over 10 pct. and GDP is performing slightly better than the last time a POTUS inherited something nearly this deep.." :thumbsup:
Hmm...I sense a bit more venom in this ^^ post. Panties seem a bit more bunched than otherwise. Is there something in the news that happened positive for O or something??:confused Or is it just that your psyche job ain't gripping here and frustration is setting in?
Recommends you just start one thread for all of the friends you invite here to agree with your 'logic' M/S.
That way some of us can just forgo analyzing whether they are just random people posting random concurrences with you versus your friends showing up to give you a hand against big ol' bad 'Mega.:o
We've been in a recession since August 2008. We're going to be in one for another 2 years as the Republican House plays the "No" game on every attempt by Obama to do something to jumpstart the economy. With each NO vote and press conference given by the GOP, Obama will simply laugh his way back to reelection.
The "No" game by Congressional Reps will actually harm GOP Prez contenders because as hatred for the GOP and Tea Baggers builds...the American public will begin to tune out and turn on GOP contenders. There will be a lot more vocal challenges to their boring old talking points, and it will be a very miserable campaign process for all of them. The GOP risks being seen as nothing more than the party of Re-election. While the economy burns and the wars continue to drain our money...the GOP's focus on Nov 2012 will only cement in voter hatred. People don't want to suffer through election gridlock 2 years before the election!
Maybe some Prez Contenders (Huntsman and Mitt Romney) might begin the separation of Tea Bagger and the GOP by pretty much shredding Tea Bagger stupidity and this will gin up the Tea Baggers and there'll be a wonderful tearing apart of American Conservatism into two small and nationally unelectable and irrelevant camps... :thumbsup:
The "No" game by Congressional Reps will actually harm GOP Prez contenders because as hatred for the GOP and Tea Baggers builds...the American public will begin to tune out and turn on GOP contenders. There will be a lot more vocal challenges to their boring old talking points, and it will be a very miserable campaign process for all of them. The GOP risks being seen as nothing more than the party of Re-election. While the economy burns and the wars continue to drain our money...the GOP's focus on Nov 2012 will only cement in voter hatred. People don't want to suffer through election gridlock 2 years before the election!
Maybe some Prez Contenders (Huntsman and Mitt Romney) might begin the separation of Tea Bagger and the GOP by pretty much shredding Tea Bagger stupidity and this will gin up the Tea Baggers and there'll be a wonderful tearing apart of American Conservatism into two small and nationally unelectable and irrelevant camps... :thumbsup:
Enjoy your analysis. :rofl2: Sounds like "your friends" have been working with you on it.
You get upset when someone doesn't agree with you. When you post the way you do, you're going to get some people who do not agree with you.
He usually follows his reply with this: :o
If you say Ojammy wears brown shoes............Meg would answer no they're dark brown and how Bush/Reagan never wore brown shoes and if they did they didn't look like Ohammy's which are 2.2% better looking.:bang::bang:
More reversed logic from you.
Here's the thing M/S, there are people who tend to disagree with me on point with many issues but they still at times rep me. Now that doesn't necessarily mean anything but what it might suggest is my opinions are respected by those who are and are not on my 'friends' list....even if they might disagree.
I have never gotten rep for simply attacking the opinion or person of someone I and others disagree with...just for the sake of disagreeing in spite of my post unreasonably representing the facts...like many others here.
I think I may have posted one thread in the games section..which is where allot of poster accrue rep.
I have correctly ID'ed a few chicks in the ID sect. and that is another place where people accrue tons of (deserved IMO) rep but I haven't because again, I don't ID chicks. There are others far better at it than I am.
I'm not consistent at all with the post count and other congratulatory threads in the mems section. I post there far less than posting in the talk section. The overwhelming majority of my posts here are on poli-socio issues...which is where the bulk of my rep comes from.
Sure I've been around for awhile but my lack of contributions on the other boards as compared to my contributions here and in the specific types of threads I frequent means the overwhelming majority of my rep comes from people either agreeing with my points on these issues or at minimum respecting my reasoning.
^^A far cry from the two or three people (personal friends) who line up to buttkis...err buttress your articulate, but flimsy and wildly inconsistent points of view (from what I can see).
Cite where I've gotten upset when someone disagreed with me. You're make believe 'insults' don't count either as if you can't see the tongue in cheek quality of them (which I suppose makes sense since you have admitted on more than one occasion not being able to discern joke from all seriousness with me) then maybe you should just respond with 'X' or "Okay" to save on post counts for both of us.:2 cents::dunno:
